Sixfields Stadium · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Northampton vs Gillingham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Northampton and 1.22 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Gillingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Northampton home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gillingham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gillingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 33% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Northampton and 1.22 for Gillingham, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Northampton
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Crawley Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 1-1 (D)
Gillingham
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol Rovers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tranmere · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.