Sixfields Stadium · Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Northampton vs Newport County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Northampton and 1.40 for Newport County, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Northampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Northampton home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Newport County away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Northampton
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 1-0 (W)
Newport County
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grimsby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Accrington ST · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Northampton 1-0 Newport County (League Two)
- 2023-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · Northampton 0-3 Newport County (League Two)
- 2022-10-29T13:00:00.000Z · Northampton 1-1 Newport County (League Two)
- 2022-02-08T19:45:00.000Z · Northampton 1-0 Newport County (League Two)
- 2021-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · Northampton 1-0 Newport County (League Two)
- 2019-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Northampton 2-0 Newport County (League Two)
- 2019-03-12T19:45:00.000Z · Northampton 1-0 Newport County (League Two)
- 2018-11-27T19:45:00.000Z · Northampton 1-3 Newport County (League Two)
- 2016-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · Northampton 1-0 Newport County (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.