The BetMcLean Oval · Referee I. O. Kristjansson · Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Northern Ireland U21 vs Latvia U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Northern Ireland U21 and 0.86 for Latvia U21, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Northern Ireland U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Northern Ireland U21 win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Northern Ireland U21 home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Northern Ireland U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Northern Ireland U21 and 0.86 for Latvia U21, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Northern Ireland U21
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Malta U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Portugal U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Latvia U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Germany U21 · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-11-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Greece U21 · 0-4 (L)
Latvia U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Northern Ireland U21 win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.