Northern Tigers vs Newcastle Jets II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Northern Tigers and 1.08 for Newcastle Jets II, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Northern Tigers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Northern Tigers win

72.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.78 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newcastle Jets II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Northern Tigers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Northern Tigers and 1.08 for Newcastle Jets II, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Northern Tigers win73%

Draw15%

Newcastle Jets II win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–18.8%
2–08.2%
3–18.1%
3–07.6%
1–16.3%

Recent form

Northern Tigers

Newcastle Jets II

2026-08-29T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bankstown City Lions · 2-9 (L)
2026-08-22T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Hakoah Sydney City · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Dulwich Hill · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Rydalmere Lions · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

New South Wales NPL 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	30	21	6	3	43	69
2	Northern Tigers	30	17	8	5	25	59
3	Bankstown City Lions	30	17	5	8	20	56
4	Canterbury Bankstown	30	15	6	9	18	51
5	Hills Brumbies	30	14	7	9	17	49
6	Macarthur Rams	30	14	6	10	4	48
7	Hakoah Sydney City	30	11	10	9	12	43
8	Rydalmere Lions	30	11	8	11	-3	41
9	Bulls Academy	30	11	5	14	2	38
10	Inter Lions	30	10	5	15	-15	35
11	Hurstville FC	30	9	6	15	-13	33
12	Central Coast II	30	8	7	15	-21	31
13	Dulwich Hill	30	7	9	14	-18	30
14	Newcastle Jets II	30	6	11	13	-18	29
15	Prospect United	30	4	14	12	-19	26
16	Mt Druitt Town	30	6	5	19	-34	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Northern Tigers win, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.