· Analysis updated 01:19 UTC
Northwich Victoria vs Atherton Collieries Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Northwich Victoria and 1.60 for Atherton Collieries, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Northwich Victoria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Northwich Victoria win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Northwich Victoria home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atherton Collieries away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Northwich Victoria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Northwich Victoria and 1.60 for Atherton Collieries, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
Recent form
Northwich Victoria
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atherton Collieries · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Campion · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Witton Albion · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-08-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Barnoldswick Town · 2-4 (L)
- 2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnoldswick Town · 1-1 (D)
Atherton Collieries
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Fylde · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Trafford · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trafford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prescot Cables · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Northwich Victoria · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Northwich Victoria 2-3 Atherton Collieries (FA Cup)
- 2020-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Northwich Victoria 2-0 Atherton Collieries (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Northwich Victoria win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.