Carrow Road · Referee Tom Reeves, England · Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Norwich vs Birmingham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Norwich and 1.10 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Norwich the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Norwich win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Norwich home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Birmingham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.95 | 23.7% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +1.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 44.7% | 46.1% | 2.17 | +1.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.87 | 49.2% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.87 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 1.99 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.4% | 75.6% | 1.32 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 75.4% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 55.3% | 53.9% | 1.86 | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 26.3% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Norwich
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bolton · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 2-1 (W)
Birmingham
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · Norwich 2-1 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Norwich 1-2 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Norwich 1-4 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2024-05-04T11:30:00.000Z · Norwich 0-1 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2023-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · Norwich 2-0 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2023-02-21T19:45:00.000Z · Norwich 3-1 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2022-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · Norwich 2-1 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2022-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · Norwich 2-2 Birmingham (League Cup)
- 2021-02-23T19:00:00.000Z · Norwich 3-1 Birmingham (Championship)
- 2020-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · Norwich 1-0 Birmingham (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Norwich win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.