· Analysis updated 13:58 UTC
Nosta vs Orenburg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Nosta and 1.55 for Orenburg II, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Orenburg II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nosta home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orenburg II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orenburg II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Nosta and 1.55 for Orenburg II, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Nosta
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan 2 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Orenburg II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk II · 3-0 (W)
Orenburg II
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Izhevsk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 56 |
| 2 | KDV | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 43 |
| 4 | Akron II | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 32 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | -1 | 27 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -19 | 26 |
| 7 | Orenburg II | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 8 | Izhevsk | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 23 |
| 9 | Ural II | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 | Nosta | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -28 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk II | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -17 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.