Nosta vs Ural II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Nosta and 1.58 for Ural II, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Nosta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nosta home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ural II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nosta win43%

Draw23%

Ural II win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–18.7%
1–27.6%
2–26.9%
1–06.2%

Recent form

Nosta

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Orenburg II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk II · 3-0 (W)

Ural II

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Izhevsk · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Orenburg II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nosta · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan 2 · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rubin Kazan 2 · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T08:00:00.000Z · Nosta 2-1 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · Nosta 0-2 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2025-09-07T08:00:00.000Z · Nosta 0-1 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2025-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · Nosta 2-2 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2024-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · Nosta 0-0 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2024-05-26T12:00:00.000Z · Nosta 1-2 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2023-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · Nosta 3-1 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2023-07-23T09:30:00.000Z · Nosta 0-0 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2023-05-28T11:00:00.000Z · Nosta 0-2 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)
2023-04-20T08:00:00.000Z · Nosta 2-0 Ural II (Second League - Group 4)

Second League - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	18	2	2	41	56
2	KDV	22	17	2	3	20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	13	4	5	18	43
4	Akron II	22	10	2	10	12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	6	9	7	-1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	7	5	10	-19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	6	8	8	-4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	5	8	9	-2	23
9	Ural II	22	5	7	10	-10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	4	8	10	-10	20
11	Nosta	22	4	6	12	-28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	4	5	13	-17	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.