Noteć Czarnków vs Bałtyk Koszalin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Noteć Czarnków and 1.33 for Bałtyk Koszalin, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Bałtyk Koszalin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Noteć Czarnków home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bałtyk Koszalin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bałtyk Koszalin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Noteć Czarnków and 1.33 for Bałtyk Koszalin, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Noteć Czarnków win36%

Draw26%

Bałtyk Koszalin win38%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–19.6%
1–09.4%
1–28.3%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Noteć Czarnków

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kotwica Kórnik · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Flota Świnoujście · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzino · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Środa · 0-0 (D)

Bałtyk Koszalin

2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gedania Gdansk · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stargard Szczeciński · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Środa	13	10	3	0	20	33
2	Luzino	13	9	1	3	20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	7	3	3	2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	7	1	4	2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	5	4	4	7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	5	3	4	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	5	2	6	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	4	5	4	-2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	5	1	7	1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	4	3	6	1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	3	6	4	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	4	2	7	-7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	2	6	5	-7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	2	6	5	-11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	3	2	8	-10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	3	2	8	-16	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.