City Ground · Referee Michael Oliver · Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.64 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arsenal win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nottingham Forest home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 55.3% vs market 48.9%, edge +6.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.9% | 55.3% | 1.81 | +6.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.25 | 42.0% | 42.9% | 2.33 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 1.62 | 56.9% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 18.5% | 18.4% | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.6% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 75.5% | 1.32 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.15 | 82.3% | 81.6% | 1.23 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 51.1% | 44.7% | 2.24 | -6.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nottingham Forest
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
Arsenal
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-17T17:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2025-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-3 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2025-02-26T19:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-3 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-01-30T19:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2023-08-12T11:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2023-05-20T16:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2022-10-30T14:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-5 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2022-01-09T17:10:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-0 Arsenal (FA Cup)
- 2019-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-5 Arsenal (League Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arsenal win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.