· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Nottingham Forest vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 2.88 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen win
72.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nottingham Forest home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayer Leverkusen away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 13% / 15% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Nottingham Forest and 2.88 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–36.9%
- 1–15.9%
Recent form
Nottingham Forest
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-2 (D)
Bayer Leverkusen
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.