Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.22 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Nottingham Forest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nottingham Forest home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nottingham Forest to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.22 for Manchester United, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Nottingham Forest win36%

Draw27%

Manchester United win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
0–110.6%
1–010.6%
0–08.6%
1–27.9%

Recent form

Nottingham Forest

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-2 (D)

Manchester United

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.