City Ground · Referee Craig Pawson, England · Analysis updated 21:36 UTC
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.82 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Nottingham Forest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nottingham Forest win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nottingham Forest home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nottingham Forest to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 29% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.82 for Tottenham, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–010.0%
Recent form
Nottingham Forest
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-2 (D)
Tottenham
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2026-03-22T14:15:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 3-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-12-14T14:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 3-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-04-21T19:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 2-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2024-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-0 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2024-04-07T17:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-3 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-12-15T20:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-03-11T15:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-3 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2022-11-09T19:45:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 2-0 Tottenham (League Cup)
- 2022-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nottingham Forest win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.