· Analysis updated 00:11 UTC
Nouadhibou vs Ksar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nouadhibou and 0.88 for Ksar, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Nouadhibou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nouadhibou win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nouadhibou home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ksar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nouadhibou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Nouadhibou and 0.88 for Ksar, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Nouadhibou
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vipers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vipers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Inter Nouakchott · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Nouakchott King's · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Police · 4-1 (W)
Ksar
- 2026-05-24T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Tevragh-Zeïne · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs N'Zidane · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Gendrim · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-04T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Kaédi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Nouadhibou · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N'Zidane | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Police | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Pompiers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Gendrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Armée | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | SNIM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Chemal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Nouadhibou | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Nouakchott Academie | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Tevragh-Zeïne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Nouakchott King's | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Kaédi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Kédia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | AC Douane | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nouadhibou win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.