· Analysis updated 02:33 UTC
Nouakchott King's vs Pompiers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Nouakchott King's and 1.57 for Pompiers, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Pompiers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pompiers win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pompiers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pompiers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 19% / 25% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for Nouakchott King's and 1.57 for Pompiers, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 43%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–211.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–29.2%
Recent form
Nouakchott King's
Pompiers
- 2026-10-24T16:15:00.000Z · A vs N'Zidane · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Tevragh-Zeïne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Kédia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-25T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Chemal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-18T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Nouakchott Academie · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pompiers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Police | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | N'Zidane | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Gendrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Armée | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Tevragh-Zeïne | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | SNIM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Chemal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Nouadhibou | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nouakchott Academie | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Nouakchott King's | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Kaédi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Kédia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 14 | AC Douane | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pompiers win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.