Estádio Joaquim de Almeida Flores · Analysis updated 12:10 UTC
Nova Cidade vs Artsul Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Nova Cidade and 0.60 for Artsul, a combined total of 1.28. That distribution gives Nova Cidade the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.6% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nova Cidade home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Artsul away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 32% / 41% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Nova Cidade and 0.60 for Artsul, a combined 1.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
60%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–027.9%
- 1–018.9%
- 0–116.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–06.4%
Recent form
Nova Cidade
- 2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Serrano RJ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Macaé · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Artsul · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Campo Grande · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Audax Rio · 0-0 (D)
Artsul
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrópolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serrano RJ · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Carapebus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Campo Grande · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duque de Caxias | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Niteroiense | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Artsul | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Macaé | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | São Cristóvão RJ | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 14%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.