Futbalové ihrisko ŠK Nová Dedinka · Analysis updated 17:16 UTC
Nová Dedinka vs MŠK Senec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Nová Dedinka and 3.00 for MŠK Senec, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives MŠK Senec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MŠK Senec win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nová Dedinka home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MŠK Senec away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MŠK Senec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 21% / 16% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Nová Dedinka and 3.00 for MŠK Senec, a combined 4.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.8%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–45.1%
Recent form
Nová Dedinka
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MŠK Senec · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovenský Grob · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs NMŠK 1922 Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 1-6 (L)
MŠK Senec
- 2026-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Beluša · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nové Zámky · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Veľké Ludince · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Myjava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MŠK Senec win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.