· Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Nova Iguaçu U20 vs Fluminense U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Nova Iguaçu U20 and 2.31 for Fluminense U20, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Fluminense U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fluminense U20 win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 2.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nova Iguaçu U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fluminense U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fluminense U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 12% / 18% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Nova Iguaçu U20 and 2.31 for Fluminense U20, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.4%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.8%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Nova Iguaçu U20
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Madureira U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Boavista U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa RJ U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Maricá U20 · 0-3 (L)
Fluminense U20
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense U20 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Flamengo U20 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Botafogo U20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Bangu U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Sampaio Correa FE U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 15 |
| 7 | Madureira U20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Nova Iguaçu U20 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | Boavista U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Maricá U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Volta Redonda U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Portuguesa RJ U20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fluminense U20 win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.