· Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Nova Iguaçu U20 vs Portuguesa RJ U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Nova Iguaçu U20 and 1.45 for Portuguesa RJ U20, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Portuguesa RJ U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nova Iguaçu U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portuguesa RJ U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Nova Iguaçu U20
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Madureira U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Boavista U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa RJ U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Maricá U20 · 0-3 (L)
Portuguesa RJ U20
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangu U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Madureira U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Boavista U20 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu U20 0-0 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2025-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu U20 1-0 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2025-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu U20 2-0 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Copa Rio U20)
- 2024-07-27T13:00:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu U20 1-0 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2024-03-02T00:00:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu U20 1-2 Portuguesa RJ U20 (Copa Rio U20)
Carioca U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense U20 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Flamengo U20 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Botafogo U20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Bangu U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Sampaio Correa FE U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 15 |
| 7 | Madureira U20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Nova Iguaçu U20 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | Boavista U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Maricá U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Volta Redonda U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Portuguesa RJ U20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.