Nova Iguaçu vs Olaria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Nova Iguaçu and 1.15 for Olaria, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Olaria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Olaria win

45.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.73 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nova Iguaçu home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olaria away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nova Iguaçu win23%

Draw31%

Olaria win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

0–117.6%
0–015.3%
1–112.8%
1–011.1%
0–210.1%

Recent form

Nova Iguaçu

2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Boavista SC · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boavista SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Olaria · 0-0 (D)

Olaria

2026-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Nova Iguaçu · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-05T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Nova Iguaçu · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-22T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Bangu · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangu · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Bonsucesso · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-12T17:45:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu 0-0 Olaria (Copa Rio)
2026-08-05T17:45:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu 1-0 Olaria (Copa Rio)
2025-08-13T17:45:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu 1-0 Olaria (Copa Rio)
2025-07-30T17:45:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu 0-0 Olaria (Copa Rio)
2023-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu 2-2 Olaria (Copa Rio)
2023-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu 0-6 Olaria (Copa Rio)
2020-11-04T18:00:00.000Z · Nova Iguaçu 3-1 Olaria (Carioca - 2)

Copa Rio table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boavista SC	8	5	2	1	11	17
2	Sampaio Corrêa RJ	8	5	2	1	5	17
3	Nova Iguaçu	8	3	3	2	1	12
4	Olaria	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	São Gonçalo EC RJ	6	2	3	1	1	9
6	Madureira	8	1	5	2	-3	8
7	Pérolas Negras	4	2	1	1	6	7
8	América RJ	4	2	1	1	5	7
9	CFRJ / Maricá	4	2	1	1	1	7
10	Resende	4	2	0	2	6	6
11	Bonsucesso	4	1	3	0	2	6
12	Americano Campos	4	1	2	1	0	5
13	Portuguesa RJ	4	1	2	1	0	5
14	São Cristóvão RJ	2	0	2	0	0	2
15	CEAC / Araruama	4	0	2	2	-5	2
16	Serrano RJ	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Macaé	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Volta Redonda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Bangu	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Cabofriense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Duque de Caxias	2	0	0	2	-6	0
22	Goytacaz	2	0	0	2	-6	0
23	SE Belford Roxo	2	0	0	2	-9	0
24	Santa Cruz RJ	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Olaria win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.