· Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
Novaci vs Ohrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.89 expected goals for Novaci and 2.11 for Ohrid, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Novaci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Novaci win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
2.89 – 2.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novaci home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ohrid away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novaci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 17% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.89 goals for Novaci and 2.11 for Ohrid, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 3–26.0%
- 2–15.9%
- 3–15.7%
- 2–34.4%
Recent form
Novaci
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Detonit Plachkovica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ohrid · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Osogovo · 0-0 (D)
Ohrid
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Pelister · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorno Lisiče · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Novaci · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonija GjP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 |
| 2 | Tikveš | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 |
| 3 | Aresimi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 |
| 4 | Struga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| 5 | Akademija Pandev | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 6 | FK Rabotnicki | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 7 | Pelister | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 8 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 9 | Vardar Skopje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 | Bregalnica Štip | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Belasica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Novaci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Sasa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Skopje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Ohrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Shkupi 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Detonit Plachkovica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Osogovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | Teteks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | Studenicani | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 23 | BVK Konjari | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 24 | Ovce Pole | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 25 | Vardar Negotino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
| 26 | Venec Negotino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
| 27 | Pobeda Valandovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
| 28 | Mogila | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | 0 |
| 29 | Krosu Sport Bitola | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | 0 |
| 30 | Velazerimi 77 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Novaci win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.