· Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Novaci vs Pelister Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Novaci and 0.75 for Pelister, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Novaci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Novaci win
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novaci home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pelister away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novaci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Novaci and 0.75 for Pelister, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.4%
Recent form
Novaci
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Detonit Plachkovica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ohrid · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Osogovo · 0-0 (D)
Pelister
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkupi 1927 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Rabotnicki · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Studenicani · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Makedonija GjP · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Akademija Pandev · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Novaci win, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.