Stadio Silvio Piola · Referee L. Di Mario · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Novara vs Athletic Carpi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Novara and 1.40 for Athletic Carpi, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Novara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novara home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Carpi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Novara and 1.40 for Athletic Carpi, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Novara
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-1 (L)
Athletic Carpi
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs PRO Vercelli · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Novara · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Trento | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | Treviso | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Ospitaletto | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Alcione | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Pergolettese | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Lecco | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Desenzano Calvina | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Athletic Carpi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Novara | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Juventus U23 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | PRO Vercelli | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Giana Erminio | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Folgore Caratese | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 | Renate | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.