Novara vs Cittadella Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Novara and 1.45 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Cittadella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cittadella win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Novara home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cittadella away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cittadella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 21% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Novara and 1.45 for Cittadella, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Novara win21%

Draw27%

Cittadella win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–115.3%
1–112.2%
0–211.1%
0–010.5%
1–28.9%

Recent form

Novara

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-1 (L)

Cittadella

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Brescia · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Novara · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	7	18
7	Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	1	17
8	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	3	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	1	14
11	Desenzano Calvina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	PRO Vercelli	11	3	3	5	-9	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	-6	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cittadella win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.