Novara vs Desenzano Calvina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Novara and 1.05 for Desenzano Calvina, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Novara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Novara home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Desenzano Calvina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Novara and 1.05 for Desenzano Calvina, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Novara win37%

Draw30%

Desenzano Calvina win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–012.8%
0–112.2%
0–011.6%
2–17.4%

Recent form

Novara

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-1 (L)

Desenzano Calvina

2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	7	18
7	Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	1	17
8	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	3	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	1	14
11	Desenzano Calvina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	PRO Vercelli	11	3	3	5	-9	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	-6	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.