Novara vs Folgore Caratese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Novara and 1.12 for Folgore Caratese, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Novara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.12

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Novara home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Folgore Caratese away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Novara and 1.12 for Folgore Caratese, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Novara win42%

Draw27%

Folgore Caratese win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–011.5%
0–19.6%
0–08.6%
2–18.6%

Recent form

Novara

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-1 (L)

Folgore Caratese

2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	7	18
7	Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	1	17
8	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	3	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	1	14
11	Desenzano Calvina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	PRO Vercelli	11	3	3	5	-9	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	-6	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.