· Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Novara vs Inter U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Novara and 1.22 for Inter U23, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Novara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novara home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter U23 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Novara and 1.22 for Inter U23, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Novara
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-1 (L)
Inter U23
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Foggia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Crotone · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Casertana · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ Picerno · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Team Altamura · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.