Stadio Silvio Piola · Analysis updated 23:08 UTC
Novara vs Livorno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Novara and 1.07 for Livorno, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Novara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novara home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Livorno away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Novara and 1.07 for Livorno, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Novara
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-1 (L)
Livorno
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pescara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vado · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spezia · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · Novara 0-0 Livorno (Coppa Italia Serie C)
- 2021-02-17T11:30:00.000Z · Novara 1-1 Livorno (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2020-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · Novara 3-2 Livorno (Serie C - Girone A)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.