Novara vs Pergolettese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Novara and 0.95 for Pergolettese, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Pergolettese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Novara home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pergolettese away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pergolettese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 33% / 32% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Novara and 0.95 for Pergolettese, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Novara win33%

Draw32%

Pergolettese win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–015.2%
0–114.5%
1–014.1%
1–113.5%
0–26.9%

Recent form

Novara

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-1 (L)

Pergolettese

2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Folgore Caratese · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Novara · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	13	27
2	Trento	10	5	5	0	10	20
3	Union Brescia	10	5	4	1	9	19
4	Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	8	18
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	3	16
7	Alcione	10	3	6	1	2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	0	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	3	4	3	-2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	-4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	2	4	4	-5	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	-6	10
16	Athletic Carpi	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	PRO Vercelli	10	2	3	5	-10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	-3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.