· Analysis updated 18:01 UTC
Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Skalica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nové Mesto nad Váhom and 1.60 for Skalica, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Skalica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nové Mesto nad Váhom home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skalica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Skalica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Nové Mesto nad Váhom and 1.60 for Skalica, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs TJ Slovan Kosecke Podhradie · 2-5 (L)
- 2024-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trenčianske Stankovce · 2-2 (D)
- 2024-07-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Krásno · 2-2 (D)
Skalica
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Trnava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.