· Analysis updated 10:47 UTC
Nové Sady vs Šternberk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Nové Sady and 2.38 for Šternberk, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Šternberk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Šternberk win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nové Sady home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Šternberk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Šternberk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 20% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Nové Sady and 2.38 for Šternberk, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Nové Sady
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kroměříž II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Šternberk · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Strání · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bzenec · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Všechovice · 1-6 (L)
Šternberk
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Všechovice · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavičín · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nové Sady · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Lanžhot · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kozlovice · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Všechovice | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 30 |
| 2 | Strání | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 25 |
| 3 | Kozlovice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | SK Krumvir | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Sokol Lanžhot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Slavičín | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Prostejov B | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Šternberk | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Hluk | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Břeclav | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Holešov | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Bzenec | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Brumov | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -19 | 7 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -23 | 7 |
| 15 | Kroměříž II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Baťov | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -33 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Šternberk win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.