Nové Zámky vs Častkovce Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Nové Zámky and 1.43 for Častkovce, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Nové Zámky the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nové Zámky win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.22 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nové Zámky home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Častkovce away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nové Zámky win56%

Draw20%

Častkovce win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–19.2%
1–18.2%
3–16.8%
2–26.5%
2–06.4%

Recent form

Nové Zámky

2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Častkovce · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs MŠK Senec · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Svätý Jur · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gabčíkovo · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Beluša · 0-0 (D)

Častkovce

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Púchov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Dunajská Lužná · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Komárno II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 2-1 Častkovce (3. liga - West)
2025-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 1-4 Častkovce (3. liga - West)
2025-03-26T14:00:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 2-1 Častkovce (3. liga - West)
2024-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 2-0 Častkovce (3. liga - West)
2023-04-29T14:00:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 0-4 Častkovce (3. liga - West)
2022-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 1-5 Častkovce (3. liga - West)
2022-06-19T15:00:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 0-8 Častkovce (3. liga - West)
2021-11-13T12:30:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 3-2 Častkovce (3. liga - West)
2020-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Nové Zámky 2-1 Častkovce (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nitra	12	11	1	0	35	34
2	Dunajská Lužná	12	7	3	2	7	24
3	Púchov	12	6	4	2	15	22
4	Spartak Myjava	12	5	4	3	6	19
5	Beluša	12	4	6	2	6	18
6	Nové Zámky	12	5	3	4	-3	18
7	Gabčíkovo	11	5	2	4	2	17
8	Baník Prievidza	11	5	1	5	1	16
9	DAC II	12	4	3	5	3	15
10	Trenčín II	11	4	2	5	1	14
11	Komárno II	12	4	2	6	-13	14
12	MŠK Senec	12	4	1	7	-10	13
13	Častkovce	12	3	2	7	-9	11
14	Rača	12	2	4	6	-12	10
15	Veľké Ludince	11	2	3	6	-14	9
16	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	12	1	3	8	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nové Zámky win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.