Gradski Stadion · Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Novi Pazar and 0.90 for Mladost Lucani, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Novi Pazar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novi Pazar home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mladost Lucani away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novi Pazar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Novi Pazar and 0.90 for Mladost Lucani, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.7%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Novi Pazar
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 0-1 (L)
Mladost Lucani
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Macva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs IMT Novi Beograd · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Partizan · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.