Gradski Stadion · Referee N. Minakovic · Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
Novi Pazar vs Radnicki 1923 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Novi Pazar and 1.24 for Radnicki 1923, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Radnicki 1923 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novi Pazar home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Radnicki 1923 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Novi Pazar
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-1 (D)
Radnicki 1923
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Beograd · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Macva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki NIS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IMT Novi Beograd · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 1-0 Radnicki 1923 (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-23T15:30:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 0-0 Radnicki 1923 (Super Liga)
- 2025-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 1-1 Radnicki 1923 (Super Liga)
- 2025-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 3-2 Radnicki 1923 (Super Liga)
- 2025-02-27T17:30:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 0-2 Radnicki 1923 (Super Liga)
- 2024-12-04T13:00:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 2-0 Radnicki 1923 (Cup)
- 2024-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 2-0 Radnicki 1923 (Super Liga)
- 2024-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 1-3 Radnicki 1923 (Cup)
- 2023-11-26T12:00:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 4-0 Radnicki 1923 (Super Liga)
- 2023-07-30T16:55:00.000Z · Novi Pazar 2-0 Radnicki 1923 (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Železničar Pančevo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 17 |
| 8 | Cukaricki | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.