Novi Pazar City Stadium · Referee Predrag Janjus · Analysis updated 06:04 UTC
Novi Pazar vs Zemun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Novi Pazar and 0.62 for Zemun, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Novi Pazar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Novi Pazar win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novi Pazar home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zemun away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novi Pazar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 24% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Novi Pazar and 0.62 for Zemun, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 2–013.9%
- 1–110.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Novi Pazar
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-1 (D)
Zemun
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Surdulica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vojvodina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Beograd · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Železničar Pančevo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 17 |
| 8 | Cukaricki | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Novi Pazar win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.