· Analysis updated 20:43 UTC
Novorizontino U20 vs Ibrachina U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Novorizontino U20 and 2.50 for Ibrachina U20, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Ibrachina U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ibrachina U20 win
75.5% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novorizontino U20 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ibrachina U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ibrachina U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 9% / 15% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Novorizontino U20 and 2.50 for Ibrachina U20, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.1%
- 0–310.1%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–37.6%
Recent form
Novorizontino U20
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa Santista U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aguai U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Paulinense SP U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oeste U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-2 (L)
Ibrachina U20
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Capivariano U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Capivariano U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Paulinense SP U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Paulinense SP U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs São Caetano U20 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-11T18:00:00.000Z · Novorizontino U20 1-3 Ibrachina U20 (Paulista - U20)
- 2024-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Novorizontino U20 5-1 Ibrachina U20 (Paulista - U20)
- 2024-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Novorizontino U20 3-1 Ibrachina U20 (Paulista - U20)
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ibrachina U20 win, at 75.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.