· Analysis updated 04:53 UTC
Novorizontino U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Novorizontino U20 and 1.38 for São Paulo U20, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives São Paulo U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novorizontino U20 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
São Paulo U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates São Paulo U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 30% / 27% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Novorizontino U20 and 1.38 for São Paulo U20, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Novorizontino U20
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa Santista U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aguai U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Paulinense SP U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oeste U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-2 (L)
São Paulo U20
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletico PR U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Santo Antonio U20 · 13-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-11T14:00:00.000Z · Novorizontino U20 2-1 São Paulo U20 (Paulista - U20)
- 2024-11-15T22:00:00.000Z · Novorizontino U20 3-0 São Paulo U20 (Paulista - U20)
- 2024-11-10T23:00:00.000Z · Novorizontino U20 1-1 São Paulo U20 (Paulista - U20)
- 2024-01-16T23:00:00.000Z · Novorizontino U20 3-2 São Paulo U20 (São Paulo Youth Cup)
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.