Stadion Spartak · Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Novosibirsk vs Dinamo Bryansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Novosibirsk and 1.15 for Dinamo Bryansk, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Novosibirsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Novosibirsk win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Novosibirsk home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Bryansk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novosibirsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Novosibirsk and 1.15 for Dinamo Bryansk, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.34 (model 70.5% vs market 67.5%, edge +3.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.34 | 67.5% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +3.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 73.4% | 75.1% | 1.33 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.42 | 26.1% | 27.6% | 3.62 | +1.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.04 | 44.6% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.93 | 47.6% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.88 | 47.4% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 52.7% | 52.5% | 1.90 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.75 | 52.4% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.64 | 55.4% | 54.4% | 1.84 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.36 | 26.5% | 24.9% | 4.02 | -1.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.21 | 74.0% | 72.4% | 1.38 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.78 | 32.5% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -3.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Novosibirsk
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volgar Astrakhan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaluga · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 0-0 (D)
Dinamo Bryansk
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bryansk | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 15 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 15 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Novosibirsk win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.