· Analysis updated 10:26 UTC
Nový Jičín vs Frydek-Mistek B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Nový Jičín and 2.18 for Frydek-Mistek B, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives Nový Jičín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nový Jičín home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Frydek-Mistek B away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nový Jičín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 20% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Nový Jičín and 2.18 for Frydek-Mistek B, a combined 4.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–26.2%
- 1–15.7%
- 3–25.5%
Recent form
Nový Jičín
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hlučín · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pustá Polom · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bílovec · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Břidličná · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bospor Bohumín · 2-4 (L)
Frydek-Mistek B
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Břidličná · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bospor Bohumín · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zabreh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Opava II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Frýdlant · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Vratimov | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Kravare | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | Hlučín | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Valašské Meziříčí | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Opava II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Stonava | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Zabreh | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Nový Jičín | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 11 | Frydek-Mistek B | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Šumperk | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Břidličná | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Bílovec | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | Frýdlant | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -30 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.