NSI Runavik vs FC Lugano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for NSI Runavik and 2.65 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives FC Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Lugano win

76.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 2.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

NSI Runavik home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lugano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lugano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 15% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for NSI Runavik and 2.65 for FC Lugano, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

NSI Runavik win9%

Draw15%

FC Lugano win77%

Double chance 1X

23%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

91%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

0–211.1%
0–39.8%
1–28.9%
0–18.4%
1–37.9%

Recent form

NSI Runavik

2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs B36 Torshavn · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Gota · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AB · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KI Klaksvik · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EB / Streymur · 4-2 (W)

FC Lugano

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pully Football · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-13T17:30:00.000Z · NSI Runavik 2-2 FC Lugano (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-06T18:30:00.000Z · NSI Runavik 0-2 FC Lugano (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Lugano win, at 76.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.