NSI Runavik vs FC Lugano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for NSI Runavik and 2.65 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives FC Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws roughly 23% of the time.

Model pick

FC Lugano to Win

76.7% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.80 – 2.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

NSI Runavik win9%

Draw15%

FC Lugano win77%

Double chance 1X

23%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

91%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

0–211.1%
0–39.8%
1–28.9%
0–18.4%
1–37.9%

Why the model likes this

FC Lugano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lugano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 15% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for NSI Runavik and 2.65 for FC Lugano, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 51%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

NSI Runavik

FC Lugano

2026-08-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs NSI Runavik · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Zurich · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs NSI Runavik · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.