NTNUI vs Herd Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for NTNUI and 1.86 for Herd, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives NTNUI the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

NTNUI home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Herd away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NTNUI to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for NTNUI and 1.86 for Herd, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

NTNUI win40%

Draw22%

Herd win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–18.3%
2–17.8%
1–27.7%
2–27.3%
3–14.9%

Recent form

NTNUI

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nardo · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kvik Trondheim · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde II · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Orkla · 1-3 (L)

Herd

2026-10-09T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Molde II · 2-6 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Trondheim · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Byåsen · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Orkla · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strindheim	24	16	4	4	39	52
2	Volda	24	16	4	4	38	52
3	Melhus	24	12	5	7	26	41
4	Byåsen	24	11	5	8	7	38
5	Molde II	24	10	5	9	-11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	10	4	10	9	34
7	Nardo	24	10	3	11	14	33
8	Herd	24	9	5	10	-7	32
9	Spjelkavik	24	8	5	11	-8	29
10	NTNUI	24	7	7	10	-16	28
11	Ranheim II	24	7	5	12	-17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	-21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	7	4	13	-23	25
14	Orkla	24	5	5	14	-30	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.