Numancia II vs Guijuelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Numancia II and 1.33 for Guijuelo, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Numancia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Numancia II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guijuelo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Numancia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Numancia II and 1.33 for Guijuelo, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Numancia II win44%

Draw24%

Guijuelo win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.1%
1–08.4%
1–27.5%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Numancia II

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas II · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mojados · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Almazán · 0-5 (L)

Guijuelo

2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bembibre · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Turégano · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Calasanz de Soria · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas II · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cristo Atlético	8	6	1	1	9	19
2	Cultural Leonesa II	8	6	1	1	8	19
3	Burgos Promesas	8	5	2	1	10	17
4	UD Santa Marta	8	5	2	1	5	17
5	Palencia CF	8	4	2	2	6	14
6	Bembibre	8	4	2	2	2	14
7	La Virgen del Camino	8	4	1	3	-1	13
8	Guijuelo	7	4	0	3	6	12
9	Atlético Mansillés	7	3	2	2	2	11
10	Arandina	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	Almazán	8	2	4	2	-2	10
12	Villaralbo	8	2	3	3	2	9
13	Turégano	8	1	4	3	-3	7
14	Calasanz de Soria	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Unionistas II	8	1	2	5	-6	5
16	Colegios Diocesanos	8	1	1	6	-10	4
17	Salamanca II	8	1	1	6	-14	4
18	Mirandés II	8	0	3	5	-7	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.