Numancia vs A Madrid III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Numancia and 0.67 for A Madrid III, a combined total of 1.77. That distribution gives Numancia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Numancia win

45.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 0.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Numancia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
A Madrid III away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Numancia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 32% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Numancia and 0.67 for A Madrid III, a combined 1.77 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Numancia win46%

Draw32%

A Madrid III win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–018.8%
0–017.0%
1–112.5%
0–111.4%
2–010.3%

Recent form

Numancia

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs A Madrid III · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 2-0 (W)

A Madrid III

2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Ávila · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · Numancia 2-0 A Madrid III (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	A Madrid III	7	4	2	1	3	14
2	Real Valladolid II	7	4	1	2	8	13
3	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
5	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
6	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	2	3	2	1	9
9	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	7	2	1	4	-4	7
13	Albacete II	7	1	3	3	-12	6
14	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	7	0	4	3	-5	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Numancia win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.