· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Numancia vs Zaragoza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Numancia and 1.18 for Zaragoza, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Numancia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Numancia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zaragoza away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Numancia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Numancia and 1.18 for Zaragoza, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Numancia
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs A Madrid III · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 2-0 (W)
Zaragoza
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Teruel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cartagena · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Torremolinos · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.