· Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Nürnberg II vs Vilzing Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Nürnberg II and 1.33 for Vilzing, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Nürnberg II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nürnberg II win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nürnberg II home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vilzing away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Nürnberg II
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Memmingen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansbach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV 1860 München · 0-2 (L)
Vilzing
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eichstätt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Buchbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwaben Augsburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Illertissen · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T16:30:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 1-3 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2026-03-21T13:00:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 1-0 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2025-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 1-3 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2025-03-02T13:00:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 1-1 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2024-08-23T16:15:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 1-3 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2023-10-28T12:00:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 1-4 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2023-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 3-5 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2023-03-18T13:00:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 3-1 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2022-08-28T12:00:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 8-1 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2021-07-10T00:00:00.000Z · Nürnberg II 2-3 Vilzing (Friendlies Clubs)
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nürnberg II win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.