· Analysis updated 18:41 UTC
Nürnberg U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nürnberg U19 and 2.38 for Bayer Leverkusen U19, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen U19 win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nürnberg U19 home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayer Leverkusen U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 24% / 19% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Nürnberg U19 and 2.38 for Bayer Leverkusen U19, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–17.3%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Nürnberg U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 3-3 (D)
Bayer Leverkusen U19
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Saarbrücken U19 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Elversberg U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hildesheim U19 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T09:30:00.000Z · Nürnberg U19 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-21T10:00:00.000Z · Nürnberg U19 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen U19 win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.