· Analysis updated 17:06 UTC
Nürnberg U19 vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Nürnberg U19 and 1.56 for Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19, a combined total of 4.26. That distribution gives Nürnberg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nürnberg U19 win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nürnberg U19 home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nürnberg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 18% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Nürnberg U19 and 1.56 for Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19, a combined 4.26 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–15.9%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Nürnberg U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 3-3 (D)
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
- 2026-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig U19 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nürnberg U19 win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.