Max-Morlock-Stadion · Referee L. Wolf · Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Nürnberg W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Nürnberg W and 3.73 for VfL Wolfsburg W, a combined total of 5.02. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfL Wolfsburg W win
80.8% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 3.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nürnberg W home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Wolfsburg W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 9% / 11% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Nürnberg W and 3.73 for VfL Wolfsburg W, a combined 5.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.4%
- 1–46.9%
- 1–25.9%
- 0–35.7%
- 0–45.3%
Recent form
Nürnberg W
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Buntentor W · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 1-1 (D)
VfL Wolfsburg W
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Koln W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mainz 05 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Sand W · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -21 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfL Wolfsburg W win, at 80.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.