· Analysis updated 03:07 UTC
NWU FC vs The Bees Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for NWU FC and 0.63 for The Bees, a combined total of 1.48. That distribution gives NWU FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.9% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NWU FC home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
The Bees away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NWU FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 37% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for NWU FC and 0.63 for The Bees, a combined 1.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.9%
- 1–019.4%
- 0–114.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
NWU FC
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs University of Pretoria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Leicesterfield · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Magesi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cape Town City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Midlands Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
The Bees
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hope FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Casric Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cape Town City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lerumo Lions · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hungry Lions · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Cape Town City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Casric Stars | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Hungry Lions | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Lerumo Lions | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Upington City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Hope FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Highbury | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gomora United FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | NWU FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Leicesterfield | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | University of Pretoria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Orbit College | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.