Nyköping vs Smedby Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Nyköping and 1.10 for Smedby, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Nyköping the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nyköping win

54.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nyköping home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Smedby away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nyköping to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Nyköping and 1.10 for Smedby, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Nyköping win54%

Draw23%

Smedby win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.8%
1–09.9%
2–19.8%
2–09.0%
0–16.0%

Recent form

Nyköping

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fittja · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlslund · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Smedby · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Syrianska FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Örebro Syrianska · 0-1 (L)

Smedby

2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eker Örebro · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlslund · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Örebro Syrianska · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Lindo FF · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Haninge · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Södra Svealand table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Farsta	26	16	4	6	25	52
2	Sleipner	26	15	6	5	19	51
3	Nyköping	26	14	4	8	16	46
4	Forward	26	13	6	7	15	45
5	Rågsved	26	13	6	7	11	45
6	Haninge	26	13	5	8	12	44
7	Smedby	26	10	6	10	3	36
8	Fittja	26	11	3	12	0	36
9	Örebro Syrianska	26	10	4	12	1	34
10	Karlslund	26	8	7	11	-6	31
11	Nacka Iliria	26	9	3	14	-16	30
12	Syrianska FC	26	7	5	14	-17	26
13	Lindo FF	26	6	2	18	-20	20
14	Eker Örebro	26	5	3	18	-43	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nyköping win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.